At this stage, the official data do not yet include the number of terminated employment contracts and returnees from abroad. On the economic front, some 500,000 jobs are likely to be lost this year, and the unemployment rate is estimated at 8%. Recent studies show that the people most affected by job losses are aged 45 to 54, rural, urban, and have average or below-average levels of education.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts an explosive rise in the unemployment rate in 2020, followed by a 6% fall in 2021. The government, meanwhile, is still preparing the 2020 budget, which is based on a 4.1% growth rate in 2020 and a 3.5% increase in 2021.
The European Commission has revised upwards its forecast for Romania’s economic growth in its Autumn Economic Forecast of 7 November. In its latest forecast, the Commission has improved its growth forecast for 2020 from 3% to 1-3%, while growth rates are expected to fall to -3% and -1.0% in 2021. At the same time, it still expects economic growth to be 3.2-4% in 2019, rising to 2-4% by 2021 and 5-6% in 2022.
In a communication on Romania, Raiffeisen analysts cited growth expectations for 2019 as the main reason for raising their forecast for the Romanian labour market. They expect growth to be 4.2% in 2020 and 3.5% in 2021. The outlook for stuttering growth in neighboring Bulgaria, whose consulting market is expected to grow to just $1.17 billion over the same period, is less optimistic than the previous estimate of $2.21 billion.
Based on data from Statista Consultancy UK, our analysis concludes that the Romanian consulting market is likely to grow by half a billion dollars between 2015 and 2020. Bulgarian consultants, who could see a 5% growth spurt in 2018 and 2019, are expected to see $101 million in the first half of the year, up from $100 million last year.
Romanian consultancies, including those in Romania, Bulgaria, Romania’s second largest trading partner, will continue their steady growth, with a record year expected in 2017 and 2018, when expansion is expected to reach 4%.
Romania’s gross domestic product (GDP) will fall by 8.6% in the event of a second coronavirus outbreak in 2020, it has been announced. The OECD said in its annual World Economic Outlook for Romania, released on Wednesday, that even if the second wave of the pandemic were avoided, Romania’s economy would still contract by 2.5% by 2020. By 2021, the OECD expects its economy to grow at an annual rate of 3.2%, up from 4.1% last year.
The recovery is slow, the organisation said, adding that there was an urgent need to expand policies to support the economy and prevent poverty from rising. In the event of a second outbreak, the introduction of a short-time work program and the delay in paying social security contributions would help Romania to keep employment during a nationwide lockout of up to eight weeks, it said. According to the OECD, reducing the administrative burden on businesses and taking advantage of potential relocations to Romania is key to accelerating the recovery, as well as the benefits of reducing the cost of goods and services, such as lower taxes and reduced administrative burdens for businesses.
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a significant economic decline and the consequences are now being felt. According to the OECD, restructuring an economy after a massive closure is a painful process, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises.
As a result, people who have become unemployed after massive redundancies – after receiving a certain amount of compensation – no longer report to the employment office, which is passive in implementing active labour market policies. There is no way to find a reliable new job at a time of scarce new investment.
Romania has a long history of ambitious but unrealistic policies, some of which can be reassessed time and again, but never in the long term.
That is why the country is now an attraction for expats looking for work, and this has been attracting foreign professionals for years. Romania is slowly becoming one of the fastest growing economies in the world in terms of foreign direct investment. Solid growth is expected in Romania’s economic sectors in 2019 and foreign investment is expected to increase steadily. This fact has been attracting foreign professionals for years, as well as a steady flow of foreign investment.
COVID-19 outbreak in Romania, the labor market indicators have been influenced by it, with a decline in the number of jobs and an increase in unemployment rates in some sectors.
In May 2020, all three indicators recorded a fall in the number of jobs and an increase in unemployment rates in all sectors, as well as a fall in employment rates.